Welcome back to the daily fantasy sports cheat sheet NFL edition. As always, we will try to get rich doing something we love: playing fantasy football.
After almost a year off, The Loop Sports is back in the fantasy sports/gambling business. I’m thrilled, to say the least. So far, 2018 has been my most profitable year playing DFS.
The structure of my “cheat sheets” will change a bit from last season. Instead of just giving out picks for every position, I’m going to list players that are my favorite plays for whatever reason. I will also include one or two players to fade on the slate.
Note: I’m more of a GPP player, so the players I list may have a really high upside, along with a greater amount of risk. Keep that in mind when plugging these players into your lineup.
Let’s get into week 10.
Aaron Jones Playing at Home Against the Dolphins
Finding cheap runningbacks in DFS this season has been a challenge with players like Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon and James Connor producing at such a high level. Those same players will see a ton of ownership again in week 10, but one guy is going overlooked after seeing an increase in playing time.
Aaron Jones was the Green Bay Packers featured back against the New England Patriots last week. He is clearly the best RB on the roster and would have seen even more volume Sunday if his coach was just a bit smarter.
After Jones fumbled, Mike McCarthy decided to give carries to Jamal Williams. He quickly realized that Willians wasn’t Jones and made once again gave the ball to the best back on the team.
Sunday, the Packers will play at home against a Dolphins’ defense that ranks 26th in DVOA against the run. In week seven, Kerryon Johnson ran all over the Dolphins’ defense for 158 yards.
Jones, who is averaging six yards a carry this season, should get a high amount of touches at home, in the Green Bay cold against a warm weather team. Each week I will guarantee a touchdown for a player I talk about and this week I am guaranteeing Jones finds the end zone.
Josh Gordon Returning to Full Health
I’ll go right back to that Patriots-Packers game from last week. This time, I am targeting a wide receiver returning to full health. That receiver is Josh Gordon, who appears to finally be over that hamstring injury that was giving him issues since September.
On Sunday, the Patriots will play the Titans, who have struggled against opposing team’s No. 1 receivers. In fact, they rank 31st in the NFL against the top wideouts of opposing teams. Former Patriot Malcolm Butler has struggled so far this season…expect the Patriots to attack him on Sunday. Especially, after the decision to bench him in last year’s Super Bowl.
With Edelman questionable to play with an ankle injury, Gordon should see the most targets of any Patriots’ pass catcher Sunday given his health.
Player to Fade: Joe Mixon Against the Saints
After a horrible start to the season, the Saints’ defense has actually been very good. In fact, they currently rank 5th in all of the NFL against the run. They will play the Bengals on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati.
Mixon’s price on DraftKings is $7,700 and $8,000 on Fan Duel, which seems too high for a player that is going to see a lot of attention Sunday. Especially because AJ Green, who is dealing with a foot issue, will not play. Outside of Tyler Boyd, there is no reason for the Saints’ defense to focus on anyone, but Mixon.
Yes, Mixon should see an increase in touches, but with Marshon Lattimore handling John Ross and Tyler Boyd, the rest of the Saints’ defense will be focused on stopping Mixon. If there is a player on the Bengals I end up using this weekend, it’s John Ross, who has the ability to score on any play.
Cheap Defense: Packers vs. Brock Osweiler
The Rams, at home against the Seahawks, will most likely be the highest owned defense this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A unit that could go overlooked is the Packers at home against the Brock Osweiler.
Here’s a little something I wrote earlier in the week.
My favorite defense to stream this week is the Green Bay Packers. They are a team with a young, talented secondary playing at home against a warm weather team in the Miami Dolphins. Brock Osweiler will most likely be the starting quarterback. Sign me up.
Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine will bring a lot of exotic pressure and that means Osweiler should be good for at least two turnovers Sunday in Green Bay.