The Super Bowl is here and I’m already trying to figure how I’m going to handle the NFL season officially being over. It’s going to be a dark, dark time.
Every year, I put some money on the different prop bets out there for the big game. It makes watching the Super Bowl even more fun than it already is. As you probably know by now, having a little action on the game makes it that much more fun and or painful for me.
Betting on props is interesting because you have bets that could be -600 or +1500. There’s really no in-between, which again, makes things fun. Here, I will give out my favorite prop plays of Super Bowl 53.
Now, if you’re looking for film breakdowns, in-depth statistical data, and crazy logical reasons why I picked certain prop bets, then you’re in the wrong place. We are here to have fun, but more importantly, make some money while doing it.
The lines and bets I use will be from MyBookie. Definitely check them out.
1) National Anthem O/U 1 minute and 43 seconds?
Over. It’s important to note here that my girlfriend is my go-to person for this bet every year. She’s currently undefeated, so yea, I’m listening to her again. We’re taking the over. Why? Well, because Gladys Knight is an “old lady, who will want to have all the attention on her by prolonging the National Anthem.”
I’d be lying if I didn’t say this video of Ms. Knight signing the National Anthem in 1991 in under 91 seconds didn’t scare me, but for the sake of my wellbeing, I’m going with my girlfriend on this one.
2) Coin Toss: Heads or Tails?
I’ve always been a “tails never fails” person. Some recent data (luck) has made me a heads believer though. Patriots’ captain Matthew Slater always calls heads for whatever reason. He actually said this week that Slaters always call heads. Whatever the hell that means.
Evan Abrams of The Action Network gives a better, more in-depth description of why heads is clearly the move for this year’s coin toss.
.@EvanHAbrams is riding with Pats captain Matthew Slater
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 25, 2019
PSSSSSTTTTTT – The public being on tails makes heads the lock of the century.
3) Tom Brady O/U 311.5 Passing Yards
Over his last three Super Bowls, Brady has averaged 433 passing yards. So you can probably guess what my pick will be here. Yes, the Patriots will run the ball, but don’t think for a second that Brady won’t have the ball in his hands, especially after idiotic comments like this.
Presenting the dumbest thing you can say before facing Tom Brady:#Rams DB Nickell Robey-Coleman on matchup vs Brady: “Age has definitely taken a toll…..He’s definitely not the same QB he was.”
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) January 28, 2019
4) Tom Brady Rushing Yards O/U 2.5
Look, we know Brady isn’t the most gifted athlete.
17 Years ago Tom Brady ran a 5.28 40 yard dash at the NFL Combine. pic.twitter.com/ydIr0YQgX6
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) March 3, 2017
Ok, he may not even be considered an athlete. Just kidding, Tommy. Anyway, most will go with the under here, but I like the over. Brady is going to have at least one QB sneak attempt in this game. I also think there will be at least one play where he runs and picks up more than two yards.
This has strangely become my favorite prop bet of this year’s Super Bowl. What is wrong with me? Don’t answer that.
5) Goff O/U 285.5 Passing Yards
I expect this to be a high scoring game like last year’s SB. That means both QBs will have big days. The Rams aren’t going to be able to run the ball on the Pats either. Belichick will take away what the Rams do best on offense and that is run the football.
6) James White O/U 6 Receptions
Nobody catches the ball out of the backfield more consistently than James White. The Rams also give up passes to RBs. In the NFC title game, Alvin Kamara caught 11 passes. White should have a big day in the passing game and could see a similar target share. Let’s not forget White caught 15 passes against the Chargers in the Divisional round.
7) Todd Gurley O/U 3.5 Receptions
Reports are that Gurley was actually healthy for the NFC Championship game, Sean McVay just went with CJ Anderson instead. Let’s not read too much into this: Gurley is going to play in the Super Bowl, probably a lot.
Even in limited action against the Saints, Gurley had three targets, two of which that were dropped. I believe this line is way too low. Damien Williams caught five passes against the Pats, and I expect something similar from Gurley on Sunday.
McVay also said that Gurley will “be a big part of this game.” Cash that prop in now.
8) Woods O/U 5.5 Receptions
Since the Cooper Kupp injury, Woods has become the Rams primary receiver in the slot. He should have had not one, but two TDs against the Saints. Stephon Gilmore will see a heavy dose of Brandin Cooks on the outside, meaning Woods could have a big day in the slot.
9) Score 1st TD: Gurley/Anderson/Michel
I’m taking both Gurley or Anderson as players I like to score the first TD in Super Bowl 53 on the Rams. They like to pound the ball inside near the goaline and one of these backs will find a way to get in. Michel is my guy for the Pats because they have been amazing in short yardage situations with him in the backfield. Pretty straight forward strategy here.
10) What Will Happen 1st? Sack or TD?
This one seems easy, but it really could go either way. With Aaron Donald on one side and Bill Belichick on the other, I’m leaning sack before TD in Super Bowl 53. This is just a gut feeling like most prop bets are, so let’s roll with a sack before a TD in this game.
11) Last Score of Game: TD or FG/Safety?
Like all Super Bowls the Patriots play in, I expect this game to come down to the final seconds. That means the last points of the game will most likely come on a field goal. Hence, why I’m choosing FG/Safety as the last score of the game over a TD. Both teams have good kickers, and I think it comes down to one of them in the end.
12) Donald MVP
How do you beat TB12 in big games? You pressure him. That’s exactly what the New York Giants did twice, and it’s something the Rams will have to do on Sunday. If Donald gets hot, then he could take over the game much like Von Miller did three years ago. That’s why Donald is my longshot to win Super Bowl 53’s MVP award.
PICK-Donald to win SB MVP
13) 1st Song Played at Super Bowl Halftime Show
This another prop where I had to consult my girlfriend about, so if I end up being wrong…we can blame her. I’m not a big Maroon 5 guy, but I know a few of their songs. With that being said I have no clue what I’m talking about, so yea, Animals will be the first song played at the halftime show.
Nick is the editor-in-chief at TheLoopSports.com. He also is a fantasy sports junkie, DFS player, and prop play guru. You can play against him by clicking the graphic below and following him on Twitter @PetroTLS.