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Analysis Bears

Bears: 2019 Running Back Stat Projections

It's the end of May, and I'm dying for football. Two, long months before training camp. We can do it, people! For the first time in a long time, the Chicago Bears are heading into a season with high expectations.

  • The Chicago Bears have a lot to be excited about heading into the 2019 season. 
  • Nick Petro is going to give out his projections for each major position. 

It’s the end of May, and I’m dying for football.

Two, long months before training camp. We can do it, people!

For the first time in a long time, the Chicago Bears are heading into a season with high expectations. To prepare for fantasy football and the regular season, I thought it would be a good idea to project some of the major position groups on the Bears.

It’s something that will be fun to look at during the season, in January, and it will keep from going crazy in the meantime.

Today I will take a look at the Bears running backs for the 2019 season. Before we get into my projections, let’s take a look at what the 2018 team did in the running game.

2018 Bears RBs

Players Carries Yards YPC TDs Rec Yards YPR TDs
Jordan Howard 250 935 3.7 6 29 298 10.3 1
Tarik Cohen 99 444 4.5 3 71 725 10.2 5
Benny Cunningham 11 20 1.8 0 1 9 1 0
Taquan Mizzell 9 16 1.8 0 8 78 9.8 1

Quick Notes

-The Bears had 369 rushing attempts with RBs in 2018.

-In year two, we expect QB Mitch Trubisky to take a step forward, meaning head coach Matt Nagy will throw the ball more by default and the Bears will run the ball less.

-We can expect the total carries for Bears’ running backs to decrease in 2018. Keyword, running backs. We know Nagy likes to hand the ball off to his receivers. While total carries for RBs will be down, total carries on offense may be up, especially with the addition of Cordarrelle Patterson.

-With three capable RBs, the Bears distribution of the ball will not be as top-heavy as last year where Howard and Cohen dominated.

-Let’s say the Bears’ RBs rush the ball 340 times in 2019. 

David Montgomery 

Projections 

Player Carries Yards YPC TDs Rec Yards YPR TDs
David Montgomery 148 685 5 6 38 325 8.5 3

The Bears first pick in 2019 draft should eventually become their “workhorse” back, I’m just not sure that is in 2019, at least at the start. For me, 2020 and 2021 are the years Montgomery will put up Kareem Hunt type numbers.

We have to also keep in mind that Nagy likes to run receivers out of the backfield as well. Cordarrelle Patterson rushed over 40 times last season and we should expect a similar number of carries for him in 2019.

That means Montgomery won’t come close to 200 carries in 2019, especially with Mike Davis on the roster.

The rookie out of Iowa State will find the end zone in 2019. I have him scoring nine total TDs, and that number may increase once we figure out what his usage is going to look like.

Montgomery will be the Bears’ next Matt Forte, it’s just hard to see it happening in 2019.

Mike Davis

Projections 

Player Carries Yards YPC TDs Rec Yards YPR TDs
Mike Davis 98 428 4.1 4 23 167 6.8 1

If healthy, the Bears are going to use Mike Davis quite a bit, especially early on. He fits the Nagy offense and is an explosive runner between the tackles. I project Davis getting a lot of opportunities in goalline situations.

Don’t sleep on Davis’ ability as a pass catcher, either. He quietly caught 34 passes last season. Does he catch over 30 balls with the Bears? No, but don’t think he will be off the field on passing downs.

It’s going to be very interesting to see how Nagy splits the usage between Montgomery and Davis in 2019.

Fantasy Football – Mitch Trubisky Will Be a Top 5 Fantasy Quarterback in 2019

Tarik Cohen

Projections 

Player Carries Yards YPC TDs Rec Yards YPR TDs
Tarik Cohen 68 305 4.8 2 67 750 7.5 4

With Davis and Montgomery on the roster, we will see the number of carries for Tarik Cohen decrease in 2019. That’s a good thing! Tarik Cohen the receiver > Tarik Cohen the runner.

Nagy has a lot of weapons on offense now, so he can really pick and choose the matchups. We will see Cohen in a bunch of positive situations in 2019. Again, expect less of Cohen between the tackles.

We will see him more as a receiver and in two-back formations. 99 carries for Cohen seems impossible, unless a few injuries occur.

Kerrith White

Projections 

Player Carries Yards YPC TDs Rec Yards YPR TDs
Kerrith Whyte 26 103 9.3 1 19 120 10 1

Look, I’m bullish on White.

He’s a Tarik Cohen type player that brings a lot of athletic ability to the table. Is 26 carries probably too high of a number for him? Yes, but let’s keep in mind the Bears aren’t afraid to keep their talented players around.

Taquan Mizzell has also been moved to WR. It’s not crazy to believe that the Bears will keep four RBs on their roster. White will have to prove himself in camp, but if he does he could find himself floating around the active roster and practice squad in 2019.

If you haven’t seen any film on him, do yourself a favor and watch the video below.

Full 2019 Bears’ RB Projections
Player Carries Yards YPC TDs Rec Yards YPR TDs
David Montgomery 148 685 5 6 38 325 8.5 3
Mike Davis 98 428 4.1 4 23 167 6.8 1
Tarik Cohen 68 305 4.8 2 67 750 7.5 4
Kerrith Whyte 26 103 9.3 1 19 120 10 1

Nick is the editor-in-chief at TheLoopSports.com & owner of TheChalkTLS.com. He also is a fantasy sports junkie, DFS player, and prop play guru. For more fun, follow him on Twitter @PetroTLS

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Nick is the editor-in-chief at TheLoopSports.com & owner of TheChalkTLS.com. He also is a fantasy sports junkie, DFS player, and prop play guru. He considers himself a football expert but dabbles in a bit of everything, including trying to sell his own "soul" on eBay. For more fun, follow him on Twitter @PetroTLS. 

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