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Analysis Fantasy/Gambling

The British Open For Idiots – Best Bets, DFS Targets, Prop Plays for the 2019 British Open

cheerio, let’s get some tea! We can revel about the Royal Family and debate Brexit. We'll screw with the guards at Buckingham Palace, discuss how great roundabouts are, and rant about how Americans know nothing about classic rock or football. Doesn't this sound splendid, mum?

Cheerio, let’s get some tea! We can revel about the Royal Family and debate Brexit. We’ll screw with the guards at Buckingham Palace, discuss how great roundabouts are, and rant about how Americans know nothing about classic rock or football. Doesn’t this sound splendid, mum?

In all reality, the new fourth leg of the Golf major schedule is the one time annually (and every four years when the Ryder Cup is hosted in Europe) that we care about golf that is being played on the other side of the world.

And as a dad of an 18-month old (yep, congrats to me) it’s the one I probably look forward to the most at this point. Because at 6 am when the kid is screaming to get out of his crib, I can then flip the TV on to see some major golf being played while I beg him to go back to sleep or to stop playing with sharp objects. It’s usually finished in the early afternoon in the Midwest so you have a good chunk of the day left.

The snooty Euros refer to it as “The Open Championship” but we here in the states know that term requires the “British” tag to distinguish it from our own U.S. Open. It always has a grayish tint on screen watching the British Open. It feels like rain and wind are trampling on the scores and you can inevitably count on a no-namer from Wales to be somewhere near the top of the leaderboard for much of the tournament.

I’m not going to pretend to know a ton about the links style golf course that is Dunluce Course at Royal Portrush located in picturesque Northern Ireland – I don’t. I’ve read and heard most of what all the experts have talked about in the lead up, but it’s not a place that elicits a ton of thought or analysis from me. If it’s not St. Andrews or Carnoustie it doesn’t carry the same flash for me. Again, that’s on me – I’m much more of a U.S. golf guy being that I am overweight, cheap, and American and all that.

But, that doesn’t mean we can’t try to put together a profitable weekend and that’s what Nick and I are here to do. We’ll get you some of our favorite picks for Draft Kings DFS plays, some of our best bets, and a few prop plays to wet your collective beaks on. Let’s get into them.

DFS Picks (DraftKings)

Nick

Francesco Molinari – $ 9.4k 

Molinari comes out when the stakes are highest. The stakes will be high this week, meaning we should get the best out of last year’s Open champion. Molinari also took some time off last week to rest up. He does/did have some kind of illness, but for now, he’s a go. At 9.4k, I believe you can build some solid lineups with Molinari as your most expensive player.

Phil Mickelson – $7.5K 

I know, I know. Phil has been terrible, but I’m ALL IN on fasting Phil.

He’s rested up and ready to play some good golf. You can also get lower owenership on him, compared to a guy like Cabrera-Bello, who will be popular. Also, can we talk about his DK picture for a second? What the hell is going on?

Matt

Jon Rahm – $10.6k

The Spaniard Rahm is a fascinating player. He plays with a little bit of red ass streak to him. He can crush the ball and is fresh off winning the Irish Open in the leadup to the British. He’s finished in the Top 3 in each of his last three tournaments so it’s always nice to take a guy playing on his home continent (the ever popular home continent advantage, can’t undersell that) that is playing great golf. He’s a bit cheaper than the hometown favorite Rory McIlroy who is also likely to be getting the usage boost from playing on his home track. Fade Rory, pay for Rahm.

Xander Schauffele – $9.5k

This is not me telling you not to invest in Brooks Koepka. He’s head and shoulders the best golfer on the planet at the current time, and his track record in majors over the last couple years speaks for itself. However, I also think Schauffele is still somewhat under the radar for people who don’t pay a ton of attention to golf. In 10 career majors, he has been in the top six finishers five times. That’s exactly what you are looking for from your number two golfer in DFS. He plays elite and while that is starting to reflect in his price, I don’t know that you’ll see the same in his usage numbers.

Tony Finau  – $7.8k

I’m a Finau stan for sure but I have been relatively close on him in the three majors. I faded him in the U.S. Open while backed him heavily in the Masters and PGA Championship. His final round in the PGA sunk him, but up to that point he was playing good golf. He finished top-10 at Augusta in 2019. He has struggled in his last few outings, but he was outstanding in Europe during last year’s Ryder Cup as one of team USA’s few bright spots. He’s capable of strong stretches of birdies and that’s such a huge source of points in golf DFS. His price being under $8k is what really caught my eye for Finau.

Patrick Reed – $7.4k

He hasn’t been great since winning the Masters in 2018. But he’s Captain America and you know this guy will come out with a bit of an edge in Europe. The crowd will be against him in full force and he will absolutely embrace it and likely use it as fuel for a couple strong rounds. Love him or hate him personally – as most seem to do – you have to like his ability to throw up some good scores at such a cheap price.

Bets/Props (Bovada)

Nick

Rafael Cabrera Bello: 80-1 to win

Tiger Woods: 18-1 to win

Matt

Brooks Koepka: Top 10 finish – EVEN

Bubba Watson: Top 10 finish – +1100

Xander Schauffele: to Win – +2500

Tony Finau: to Win – +6600

Tommy Fleetwood: Top 5 finish – +500

Henrik Stenson: Top 10 finish – +275

Nick: Prop Plays (MonkeyKnifeFight)

I’m more of a prop play guy when it comes to sports. For the Open, I’ll have most of my action on MKF. Here are some of my favorite plays.

*These are all first round plays. YOU CAN PLAY ROUND BY ROUND ON MKF! 

OVER/UNDERS

Brooks Koepka OVER 68.5 total strokes – I’m a big Brooks guy, but I expect him to run out gas in this spot.

Justin Thomas UNDER 15.5 Par or Better – I feel like Justin Thomas hasn’t been good in forever. Don’t think this tournament is where he bounces back.

RAPID FIRE 

Rory vs. JT More Par or Better – Rory, easily. The 2014 British Open winner has a ton to play for this week. He’s also playing better golf right now.

Koepka vs. Johnson More Birdie or Better – Give me DJ. People aren’t talking about him in this spot and that’s a good thing!

BONUS PLAYS –

Follow Matt on Twitter: @schools_01

Follow Nick on Twitter: @PetroTLS

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